Crude Oil prices over last 6 month – graph from Nasdaq

The market continues its rollercoaster performance, leaving investors and their advisers dizzy from the predictions and actualities. A case in point is the performance of crude oil. When prices dropped to $27 per barrel, the conventional wisdom coalesced in pessimism and that this trend was heading only in one direction—downward. Combined with gloomy reports about faltering economies around the world, especially China’s slowdown and the abundance of crude oil on the market, it seemed to be the perfect time to invest in shorts, which many hedge fund managers did. However, in late January, crude oil prices rebounded, by as much as 52%, with prices leaping from $27 per barrel to $41. Hedge funds scrambled to cover their shorts. A slingshot effect ensued, pushing crude oil prices even higher. This scenario played out in other commodity markets as well, such as copper, iron ore and aluminum. Investors raced to catch up with the new momentum, only to find themselves facing falling prices once again guaranteeing that the only certainty is that nothing about the market these days is anywhere near certain. Continue reading →