Capesize bulk carrier Cape Elise

Capesize Market Getting Some Encouragement – but how long-lived can it be?

The Capesize Market report from the week ending September 16, 2016 shows rates improving, but no one quite seems to know why, and there is even less certainty about how long it can last. In fact, experts can’t even say why the market fell to such disastrous lows earlier this year in the first place. Therefore, while the improvement in rates is very welcome, it is also met with a great deal of very cautious optimism.

The August fleet statistics report did not give cause for celebration, with cape deliveries standing at only seven, but looking ahead we see that there are still 84 deliveries scheduled for the remainder of 2016. Calendar year 2017 looks better, with 48 scheduled deliveries and 2018 with 24, but these numbers are more sanguine than reality since the 2018/19 deliveries have a healthy dose of 400,000MT Valemaxes being delivered. Continue reading →